The speed of range shifts in fragmented landscapes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Impact of Landscape Sparsification on Modelling and Analysis of the Invasion Process

Climate change is a major threat to species, unless their populations are able to invade and colonise new landscapes of more suitable environment. In this paper, we propose a new model of the invasion process using a tool of landscape network sparsification to efficiently estimate a duration of the process. More specifically, we aim to simplify the structure of large landscapes using the concept of sparsification in order to substantially decrease the time required to compute a good estimate of the invasion time in these landscapes. For this purpose, two different simulation methods have been compared: full and R-local simulations, which are based on the concept of dense and sparse networks, respectively. These two methods are applied to real heterogeneous landscapes in the United Kingdom to compute the total estimated time to invade landscapes. We examine how the duration of the invasion process is affected by different factors, such as dispersal coefficient, landscape quality and landscape size. Extensive evaluations have been carried out, showing that the R-local method approximates the duration of the invasion process to high accuracy using a substantially reduced computation time

Topographic microclimates drive microhabitat associations at the range margin of a butterfly

Journal Article© 2014 The Authors. Ecography published by Nordic Society Oikos.The habitat associations of individuals underpin the dynamics of species distributions. Broad-scale gradients in climate can alter habitat associations across species' geographic ranges, but topographic heterogeneity creates local microclimates which could generate variation in habitat use at finer spatial scales. We examined the selection of microhabitats for egg-laying by populations of a thermally-constrained butterfly, the skipper Hesperia comma, across 16 sites with different regional temperatures and topographic microclimates. Using models of thermal microclimate, we examined how the association between eggs and warm bare ground microhabitats varied with ambient temperature, and predicted bare ground associations in 287 existing H. comma populations, to investigate the relative impacts of regional temperatures and topographic microclimates on microhabitat use. Eggs were most strongly associated with bare ground in relatively cool sites, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. The majority of temperature variation between study sites was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that changes in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. Predicted microhabitat associations across the UK distribution of H. comma showed that, due to the large temperature differences generated by topography, most of the between-population variation in microhabitat use occurs locally within 5 km grid squares, with a smaller proportion occurring at a regional level between 5 km squares. Our findings show how microclimatic variation generated by topography alters the habitat associations of populations at fine spatial scales, suggesting that microclimate-driven changes in habitat suitability could shape species' distribution dynamics and their responses to environmental change.NERCUniversity of Exete

Active Management of Protected Areas Enhances Metapopulation Expansion Under Climate Change

Journal ArticleCopyright © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.There is a need to adapt biodiversity conservation to climate change, but few empirical studies are available to guide decision-making. Existing networks of protected areas (PAs) have been preferentially colonized during species' range expansions, but this could be due to their original habitat quality and/or to ongoing management activity. Here, we examine how PA status and active conservation management have influenced the range expansion of a butterfly Hesperia comma through fragmented landscapes. PAs under active conservation management were over three times more likely to be colonized than unprotected, unmanaged sites of the same basic vegetation type. Conservation action also increased the survival rate of existing populations inside and outside of PAs. We conclude that PAs facilitate range expansions by preventing habitat degradation and encouraging active conservation that improves habitat quality, and that conservation interventions on nondesignated sites also have a role to play in adapting conservation to climate change.NERCUniversity of Exete

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Acknowledgements LS was supported by two STSMs by the COST Action ES1101 ”Harmonising Global Biodiversity Modelling“ (Harmbio), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). JMB and SMW were funded by CEH projects NEC05264 and NEC05100. JMJT and SCFP are grateful for the support of the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/J008001/1). LS, JAH and JMJT conceived the original idea. LS, JAH, JMB, TC & JMJT designed the study; LS collected the data; LS and TC performed the statistical analyses; LS conducted the integrodifference modelling assisted by JMB and SMW. LS conducted the individual-based modelling assisted by SCFP. LS led the writing supported by JMJT, JMB, SCFP, SMW, TC, JAH and GB.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Refugia and connectivity sustain amphibian metapopulations afflicted by disease

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes depends on habitat patches that can support resilient local populations and sufficient connectivity between patches. Yet epidemiological theory for metapopulations has largely overlooked the capacity of particular patches to act as refuges from disease, and has suggested that connectivity can undermine persistence. Here, we show that relatively warm and saline wetlands are environmental refuges from chytridiomycosis for an endangered Australian frog, and act jointly with connectivity to sustain frog metapopulations. We coupled models of microclimate and infection probability to map chytrid prevalence, and demonstrate a strong negative relationship between chytrid prevalence and the persistence of frog populations. Simulations confirm that frog metapopulations are likely to go extinct when they lack environmental refuges from disease and lose connectivity between patches. This study demonstrates that environmental heterogeneity can mediate host-pathogen interactions in fragmented landscapes, and provides evidence that connectivity principally supports host metapopulations afflicted by facultative pathogens

Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes?

There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a “conductance” metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965–1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the “conductance” of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities

Quantifying trade-offs between butterfly abundance and movement in the management of agricultural set-asides

1. Agri-environment schemes (AES) create small areas of habitat within agricultural landscapes to support biodiversity. Here, we study butterfly flight behaviour within linear AES features and examine whether differences in resource availability affect the speed, linearity or directionality of local movements, thereby affecting their contribution to landscape connectivity. 2. We surveyed butterflies within three basic (naturally regenerating) and three wildflower-sown linear field margin strips (0.09-0.15 ha) on a farm in North Yorkshire, UK, and mapped butterfly flight paths to quantify local displacement (movement speed), efficiency (linearity, turning angles), directionality (step orientation) and behaviour (time spent flying, nectaring). 3. Butterfly species richness was similar between margin types (estimated asymptotic species richness of 21.9 [CI: 15.0-77.7] for basic margins and 14.2 [CI: 14.0-18.7] for wildflower-sown margins), but abundance was 78% higher in wildflower-sown margins. For the three most common species (meadow brown, Maniola jurtina (L.), ringlet, Aphantopus hyperantus (L.), and small white, Pieris rapae (L.); n = 233 paths), movements within both margin types were highly linear (median turning angle 45˚) and generally oriented along the length of the margin strip (median step orientation 27˚). Movements in basic margins were slightly more orientated along the length of the margin but we found no differences between margin types in speed, path linearity, turning angles or the proportion of time spent flying or nectaring. 4. We found strong channelling of movements along field margin strips regardless of management type, potentially aiding landscape connectivity. Providing field margin strips with additional foraging resources through wildflower sowing increases butterfly abundance without impeding local movement rates or efficiency.Funding provided by: Natural Environment Research CouncilCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270Award Number: NE/L002450/1Full details of datasets (incl. column names) can be found in README.txt Butterfly data: butterfly_flight_paths.csv: Flight path data for butterflies extra_butterfly_sightings.csv: Additional opportunistic butterfly observations sampling_dur.csv: Sampling duration of each margin per day Plant data: quadrat_survey.csv: Flower data collected through regular quadrat sampling point_survey.csv: Vegetation data collected through regular point samplin